Insights & news.

You’ve got to admire Jeremy Hunt’s chutzpah. The Chancellor delivered what is probably the last major financial statement before the General Election to a packed Commons Chamber yesterday afternoon. Listening to him, you would never guess that the UK is technically still in recession, clambering out of negative growth after over two years of stagnant economic performance. It is not an enviable record, but Hunt gave a brazen performance, cheered on by the Tory backbenchers in marginal seats he was eager to namecheck as he announced sweeteners across a range of sectors and regions.,,

On Thursday, health secretary Michael Matheson resigned and Humza Yousaf undertook a ‘mini-reshuffle’ of his cabinet. The scandal of the £11,000 iPad bill was only ever going to end this way. That it was allowed to rumble on eroding public trust for months is symptomatic of the SNP’s wider fortunes, which began to rapidly deteriorate almost a year ago to this day. Fifty-one weeks ago a press conference was hastily arranged in the Drawing Room at Bute House. Nicola Sturgeon stood before Alexander Nasmyth’s pastoral portrait of Robert Burns, announced her resignation as first minister and set in motion a remarkable chain of events...

We’ve released the latest results of our new Scotland-wide poll today — this time looking at the political lay of the land, in this a General Election year. What’s clear is that Labour continues to breathe down the SNP’s neck. 36% of Scots would vote SNP in a UK General Election, placing support for the party just a nose ahead of Labour on 34%. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats could expect to pick up 16% and 8% of the vote respectively. On seats from these numbers (based on new constituency boundaries) Prof Sir John Curtice projects 23 apiece to the SNP and Labour, 6 seats for the Tories and 5 for the Lib Dems. The SNP would enjoy...

anuary is hardly the optimal season for camping in Scotland, but with a General Election looming it was only to be expected that the New Year bells would be accompanied by a flurry of political tent pitching. Rishi Sunak’s beleaguered government is rapidly running out of time to turn things around, but despite Labour’s sustained and substantial lead in the polls, the Tories have not yet thrown in the towel. Although the Prime Minister has indicated a preference for an election in the second half of the year, he could well be bluffing. He’s certainly keeping his options open. Astute observers will have noticed that the date of the Spring Budget 2024 has been brought forward to 6 March, when the Chancellor is widely expected to hand out sweeties for everyone...

The latest Scottish Government budget was the most significant of the devolution era. In her first public event since she announced her tax and spend plans yesterday, speaking at a True North business breakfast in Edinburgh Finance Secretary Shona Robison defended her decision to significantly raise personal taxation, saying she had to make “wicked decisions and choices” to protect spending on key public services such as the NHS. Among the headline budget announcements was the creation of a new 45 percent tax band on incomes between £75,000 and £125,140, while the top rate of tax was also raised to 48 percent. Meanwhile, the higher..

COP28 presents a major challenge to governments around the world. This is certainly the case for the hosts, the United Arab Emirates, who have been embarrassed by inauspicious revelations they intended to use the conference – which is aimed at securing a commitment to end fossil fuel use – as cover to broker new oil and gas deals. But it is also true for both the UK and Scottish governments, who face a growing domestic challenge to balance the competing demands of climate targets, tight government finances, and consumers concerned about the costs of achieving net zero....

In an age of political surprises – most recently the return of former Prime Minister David Cameron to the cabinet – Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement felt surprisingly straightforward. There was no rabbit-in-the-hat moment, no grand reveal. In fact, it was all rather Conservative, with both a small ‘c’ and a big ‘C’. This did not mean Hunt was boring – he effectively ribbed his opposite number, Rachel Reeves, and poked fun at Sir Keir Starmer – but rather just conventional. As anticipated, there were tax cuts for both individuals and business. Among the headline announcements, national insurance (NI) contributions for both employees and the self-employed were cut, saving a typical employee about £450 a year...

Humza Yousaf did not have his troubles to seek ahead of his first SNP Conference as party leader, with a comprehensive and bruising by-election defeat to Labour in the marginal seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West the week before last, and the defection of a sitting MP to the Conservatives in recent days.  Those woes have, however, been overshadowed by the unimaginably difficult personal circumstances he’s faced over the last ten days with close family members trapped in Gaza. Under such pressure he’s looked more statesman-like than at any point in his leadership to date..

If the protester who covered Sir Keir Starmer in glitter at the start of his conference speech intended to throw the UK Labour leader off his stride, he failed. This was Starmer’s most assured and ambitious speech since he became party leader in 2019, with one party veteran telling me it was the best speech they had heard from a Labour leader since Tony Blair left office in 2007. It was, perhaps surprisingly a year from a General Election, a speech light on policy. Keen not to be outflanked by the Conservatives on the economy – and in keeping with his cautious approach more generally – Starmer avoided any significant spending commitments or grandiose policy pledges.